Advancing integrated scenarios and prediction models for informing transition to a nature positive society

Expected Outcome: Project results are expected to contribute to all the following expected outcomes: advanced knowledge and understanding how ecosystems respond to multiple plausible futures shaped by human-induced pressures, supporting the design of long-term, nature positive and equitable policies; strengthened collaboration across bio-physical , socio-economic and humanities disciplines, resulting in more integrated and robust scenario frameworks that capture interactions, trade-offs and synergies across biodiversity, climate, food, water, air, health, energy and economy; advancement of comprehensive ecosystem prediction models and scenario-based assessments that integrate direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity loss, applicable across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems; a consistent and transparent framework for model intercomparison and cross-scale scenario building, improving the relevance and usability of modelling outputs for policy , business and international assessments (e.g., IPBES, International Panel on Climate Change - IPCC). Scope: To address the objectives of the European Green Deal, the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030, the EU Nature Restoration Regulation and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), as well as Sustainable Development Goals, actions funded under this topic should support the scientific development of A) integrated scenarios, B) predictive models and C) model intercomparison experiments for Member States and Associated Countries. Developments should be verified in case studies covering at least 2 European biogeographic regions [1] and spanning key economic sectors to inform systemic policy transformations and enable long-term planning for a nature positive society. Proposals should: design and develop components of a European integrated prediction and scenario framework to forecast how natural ecosystems respond to a wide range of human-induced ecosystem interactions including climate change, pollution, socio-economic transitions such as conflicts, pressures, and policy interventions. These frameworks should link ecosystem functions with key economic sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries, and test their resilience and tipping points under multiple plausible futures; make use of long-term monitoring data across biodiversity, land use, climate, and socio-economic variables to improve reliability and real-world relevance. They should also quantify uncertainty in model projections and ensure scenarios incorporate dynamic feedback loops between ecosystems and socio-economic systems, and i…